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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2020-09-14 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Twenty was located near 13.0, -39.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 6

2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 39.0W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 39.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and the system is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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