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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-13 16:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 131455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-13 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130853 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity will also remain unchanged at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and 5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track. Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5 due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-13 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 08:53:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:46:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-13 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 130852 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-13 10:52:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Twenty was located near 12.2, -35.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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