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Tropical Storm Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-12 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 02:54:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-12 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 02:54:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-10-12 04:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120253 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Michael has just about lost its tropical characteristics. The low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it becomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becoming ill defined. The center we have been tracking across North Carolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia, although it should be noted that a second low center, one with even lower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore of Chesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection. Needless to say, Michael has just about become post-tropical, and that transformation should be complete overnight. The estimated maximum winds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal North Carolina. Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification of the post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours, following guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. The post-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days and will likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west of Europe by day 4. The initial motion based on the continuity-following low center is northeastward, or 055/22 kt. Michael is embedded within the mid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate toward the east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during the next couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and no significant changes to the official track forecast were required. Michael's center is expected to move off the coast of Virginia within the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- and gale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day on Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight. 2. Strong, possibly damaging winds are expected over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern Delmarva peninsula overnight. These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage, plus power outages. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible overnight along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 37.1N 76.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 39.2N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1200Z 45.4N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0000Z 47.1N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0000Z 47.6N 14.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-10-12 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 120253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 23(23) 14(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 32(32) 38(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PAX RIVER NAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) RICHMOND VA 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-10-12 04:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 76.1W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 240SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 76.1W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.2N 71.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 330SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.4N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 360SE 300SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.1N 34.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 300SE 270SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 47.6N 14.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 150SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 76.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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