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Tropical Storm Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-11 10:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 08:51:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-10-11 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 110849 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical phase. The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the previous forecast. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 33.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-10-11 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 110849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) RICHMOND VA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 51(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X 56(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NORFOLK VA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 62(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 76(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 19 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) RALEIGH NC 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 7 58(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FAYETTEVILLE 34 75 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 39(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 22(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 34 16 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) WILMINGTON NC 34 29 10(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BALD HEAD ISL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FLORENCE SC 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) COLUMBIA SC 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) LITTLE RIVER 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MYRTLE BEACH 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GEORGETOWN SC 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CHARLESTON SC 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-10-11 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 110848 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 82.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 50SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 82.5W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.2W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 140SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 82.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 19
2018-10-11 10:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110848 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN GEORGIA... ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 82.5W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF MACON GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Georgia and Florida coast south of Altamaha Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move through eastern Georgia into central South Carolina this morning, then moves across portions of central and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today while the center remains over land. However, Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. Louisville, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h), and there are several reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in the Augusta area. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are receding along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Along the southeast coast of the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of eastern and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions of central and southern South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this morning through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and southeast Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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