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Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics
2019-11-16 03:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 02:36:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 02:36:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-11-16 03:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 161 WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Raymond has changed little in organization over the past several hours, with bursts of deep convection continuing mainly over the eastern semicircle. A pair of recent microwave overpasses confirm that westerly shear continues to impact the cyclone, disrupting the inner-core from getting well established. The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt for this advisory and is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The moderate shear over the cyclone is forecast to continue through tonight while the storm remains in a moist environment and over warm water. These conditions will likely help to continue these large bursts of convection, and as a result some slight strengthening is expected to occur. On Saturday, a strong mid- to upper- level trough is forecast to dig southeastward to the west of Baja California. This will bring a steady increase in southwesterly shear across Raymond, with the shear values possibly approaching 50 kt by 48 hours. As a result, Raymond should begin to weaken by late Saturday. One uncertainty in the intensity forecast is whether or not Raymond will bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The official forecast calls for Raymond to be a weakening 35 kt tropical storm as it approaches, but these winds may be to the east of the peninsula. Subsequently, Raymond is expected to become a remnant low due to the shear. Forecast guidance is in good agreement on the above scenario, with some variations in timing. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Raymond is now moving north-northwest at 9 kt around a mid-level ridge to the east of the cyclone. A turn to the north then perhaps north-northeast is expected Saturday and Saturday night as the system rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge and becomes under the influence of the southwesterly winds associated with the approaching trough. Once the system loses its deep convection in a few days, it should turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. The latest official forecast is near the previous one and the clustered consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-16 03:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Nov 15 the center of Raymond was located near 15.4, -109.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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raymond
Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 5
2019-11-16 03:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 ...RAYMOND MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 109.8W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 109.8 West. Raymond is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, and this general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday, followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning by Saturday night. Raymond is then expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-11-16 03:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 110W 34 2 11(13) 31(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 5 25(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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