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Hurricane Henri Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2021-08-22 11:19:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 09:19:44 GMT

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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 26

2021-08-22 11:06:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220905 CCA TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 26...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more hours and should provide additional information on the storm's intensity. Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians. Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long Island and into southern New England later this morning or early this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours, and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become post-tropical shortly thereafter. With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in radar imagery. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 40.1N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Henri Graphics

2021-08-22 10:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 08:54:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 09:22:43 GMT

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Hurricane Henri Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2021-08-22 10:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 08:53:13 GMT

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Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2021-08-22 10:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 220852 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 16(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 8 26(34) 4(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) CONCORD NH 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 10 17(27) 3(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WORCESTER MA 34 70 20(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) WORCESTER MA 50 12 22(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WORCESTER MA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 50 29(79) 2(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 64 15(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BOSTON MA 50 9 11(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BOSTON MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) HYANNIS MA 50 15 3(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 34 81 X(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NANTUCKET MA 50 16 X(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 50 65 9(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PROVIDENCE RI 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 36 11(47) 1(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) NEW HAVEN CT 34 58 13(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) NEW HAVEN CT 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 64 18(82) 1(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) HARTFORD CT 50 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 94 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW LONDON CT 50 33 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW LONDON CT 64 8 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALBANY NY 34 2 11(13) 2(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 5 8(13) 1(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 50 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MONTAUK POINT 64 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLIP NY 34 27 5(32) 1(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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