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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-22 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220244 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 The last visible satellite images of Peter this evening indicated that its low-level center was losing definition and becoming even more elongated. Earlier, new bursts of convection associated with Peter had become oriented along a northeast to southwest axis, a possible sign that Peter may no longer have a well-defined center and could be opening up into a trough. But the estimated center position is now obscured by convective debris, and without recent scatterometer data to prove otherwise, Peter is maintained as a sheared tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity of 30 kt is consistent with a UW-CIMSS ADT objective 30-kt estimate and a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from SAB. It is estimated that Peter is moving northwestward, or 310/6 kt, although this is somewhat uncertain given the degraded low-level structure of the cyclone. The track reasoning remains consistent with previous advisories. Peter is forecast to turn more northward on Wednesday, and then move north-northeastward to northeastward through the end of the week as a trough to the north and northeast of Peter erodes the southern portion of the low-level steering ridge. The track consensus aids have shifted slightly to the right this cycle, and so the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one. Environmental conditions are expected to remain hostile for Peter over the next couple of days. Strong vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt will persist for the next 24-36 h, and GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Peter will be unable to sustain enough deep, organized convection to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Peter becoming a remnant low in 36 h, with some additional weakening expected before dissipation by this weekend. Of course, without sufficient convection to sustain the low-level vortex, it would not be surprising if the depression degenerated into a trough even sooner than forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through early Wednesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.8N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.6N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 24.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z 25.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-22 04:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRONG SHEAR... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Peter was located near 20.8, -65.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-22 04:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 721 WTNT31 KNHC 220243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRONG SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 65.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by late tomorrow, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Nearby NOAA buoy observations indicate the estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-09-22 04:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 723 FONT11 KNHC 220243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-09-22 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220242 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.6N 66.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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