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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-22 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 39.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 40.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-22 19:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 221754 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, and on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms remain well organized in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, recent satellite wind data indicates that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If these trends continue, a tropical depression could form as soon as this afternoon or evening. This system should move westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located more than 500 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. This low is beginning to develop more concentrated shower activity and could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone as it moves slowly across marginally warm waters over the north-central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. However, by the weekend, this system is expected to move south into an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-22 19:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
339 ABPZ20 KNHC 221745 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system during the next day or two, if any, is likely to be slow. After that time, this system is forecast to move into an environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds, which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-22 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221453 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter is barely hanging on to its status as a tropical cyclone this morning. While still closed, the low-level circulation continues to look increasingly diffuse on satellite imagery. In addition, the convective activity, which lacks much organization, remains displaced well to the northeast by moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates support keeping Peter as a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory. As has been the story for the last few days, Peter will continue to deal with a lethal combo of 25-35 kt southwesterly vertical wind shear while embedded in a relatively dry mid-level air environment. These factors should ultimately lead to Peter's demise as a tropical cyclone, with the latest NHC intensity forecast moving the timing up for post-tropical remnant low status to 24 hours. This degeneration could occur as soon as this afternoon if more organized convection does not soon return near the center. Alternatively, Peter may also open up into a trough at any time since the center continues to gradually lose definition. Similar to prior nights, Peter made another jog to the left after overnight convection diminished near the center. More recently, the depression has begun a slow north-northwestward motion estimated at 330/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then northeastward over the next 24 hours as low-level ridging breaks down south of a deep-layer trough located near Bermuda. The NHC track forecast early on is a bit west of the previous one due to the leftward initial position, but falls in line to a similar track after 24 hours, continuing to split the difference between the GFS and ECMWF models. As Peter moves poleward away from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Virgin Islands, the threat of heavy rainfall for these regions associated with the system has diminished. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 21.6N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Peter Graphics
2021-09-22 16:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 14:45:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 14:45:08 GMT
Tags: peter
graphics
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