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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-21 07:14:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 210514 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located about 100 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located several hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However, the system is expected to turn northward back over cooler waters this weekend, which should end its chances of becoming a subtropical storm. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-21 04:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 02:51:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 02:51:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-21 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210250 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Peter has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone, despite strong upper-level wind shear that continues to displace its deep convection well east of its now exposed low-level center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter tonight, as well as recent scatterometer data, indicate that the cyclone has maintained its tropical storm intensity. An ASCAT-A pass shows several 40-kt wind vectors, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 150 n mi from the center in the northeastern quadrant. The aircraft has found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR winds of around 35 kt, although it did not sample the area where ASCAT depicted the strongest winds. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 45 kt for this advisory based on the scatterometer data. An upper-level trough to the northwest of Peter should maintain 20 to 30 kt of vertical wind shear over the cyclone for the next 2-3 days. Thus, intensification seems unlikely during this period, despite 29 deg C SSTs along Peter's forecast track. If the tropical cyclone can endure these hostile upper-level winds, it could survive through the entire forecast period, although the drier mid-level environment at higher latitudes will also work against Peter later this week. However, an alternative scenario that has been favored by the GFS is that Peter weakens sooner due to a lack of sustained convection and opens up into a trough late this week. The long-range forecast is further complicated by the potential development of another non-tropical low to the north of Peter later this week, which could interact with or absorb Peter. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and only shows gradual weakening over the next several days, which is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVDR consensus aids. Data from the aircraft indicate that the center has moved westward and slowed down a bit over the past several hours, and Peter's initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. Peter is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward through Tuesday, as it is steered around the southern extent of a low- to mid-level ridge over the central and western Atlantic. By Wednesday, a mid-level cutoff low is forecast to develop to the north of Peter over the western Atlantic, which will induce a weakness in the steering ridge. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn northward and then north-northeastward through the latter part of the week and into the weekend. There are some larger along-track differences noted in the guidance at days 4-5, with the ECMWF moving or re-forming the center much farther north than the rest of the track guidance. The official NHC track forecast is shifted slightly to the right at 48 h and beyond, based on the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. At longer ranges, the forecast is of much lower confidence and trends a bit slower than the consensus aids, which are heavily influenced by the outlying ECMWF solution. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.8N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 21.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 22.3N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 24.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 25.1N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 27.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-21 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RESILIENT PETER MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 19.8, -62.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 10
2021-09-21 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...RESILIENT PETER MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 62.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 62.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the northeastern quadrant. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to Hispaniola on Tuesday and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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