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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 13:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... As of 6:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 20.8, -108.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-09-09 13:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091148 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 108.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-09 13:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091146 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located inland over southeastern Georgia. The northern portion of a tropical wave over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development of the system before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa on Saturday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-09 13:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091146 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Olaf, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for at least gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mindy (AT3/AL132021)
2021-09-09 12:13:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 30.8, -83.0 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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