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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-16 07:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Fred was located near 27.5, -86.0 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 26A
2021-08-16 07:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160551 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 86.0W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today... Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-16 07:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 05:48:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 03:29:21 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-16 07:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 17.3, -69.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-16 07:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160548 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 69.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three days. The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible through today. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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