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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-14 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 60.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-14 19:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...GRACE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.2, -58.7 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-14 19:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141756 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...GRACE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 58.7W ABOUT 185 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo Engano * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Cabo Engano A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was estimated by extrapolation near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. Preliminary reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center may be located farther to the southwest, and a relocation could be required in the 500 PM AST advisory. Grace is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and Cuba on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Sunday night through Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night into Monday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-14 19:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 17:56:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 15:29:01 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-14 19:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
514 ABNT20 KNHC 141732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on the recently downgraded remnants of Tropical Depression Fred, located near the northern coast of western Cuba, and on Tropical Storm Grace, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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