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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-15 16:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 151446 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AGUADILLA PR 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-15 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151446 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W...NEAR N. COAST CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 66.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 14:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:40 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 25.9, -84.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Update Statement
2021-08-15 14:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT61 KNHC 151241 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-15 13:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151153 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea just to the south-southeast of Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on the Remnants of Fred, which are expected to regenerate into a tropical cyclone over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south of the center. Some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, however, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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