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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-10-01 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011452 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Since the last advisory, Victor's deep convection has become limited to the northern portion of its circulation. Convective outflow is limited to the south, which indicates that the changes in the structure of the tropical storm are due at least in part to southerly wind shear. Microwave and ASCAT data between 0800 and 1200 UTC also indicate that the center of Victor has become elongated, and may be trying to reform to the north, closer to the convection. Even with that reformation, an 1128 ASCAT-B overpass revealed that the center of Victor is located substantially south of previous estimates, which has necessitated a significant change to the track forecast. With the new position, the initial motion estimate is now 295/13 kt. The tropical storm is still generally expected to turn northwestward over the weekend and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Nearly all of the dynamical models are showing this turn occuring slightly later than earlier forecasts, which results in a track well to the west of the previous NHC forecast. Combined with the updated analysis of Victor's position, the new NHC forecast has been shifted over 100 n mi to the southwest by day 4. However, this is still on the far east side of the guidance envelope so additional changes to the track forecast might be needed this afternoon. The aforementioned ASCAT data showed peak winds near 50 kt, which supports an intensity of 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument. The intensity analysis is also supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Despite the large changes to the track forecast, no change of note was made to the intensity forecast. Increasing shear and a dry surrounding environment should cause Victor to weaken during the next few days. Some models even indicate it could dissipate before the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is based on the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.0N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 14.7N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.6N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 18.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.6N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 23.6N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 27.1N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-10-01 16:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 011451 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-01 16:51:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CENTERED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Victor was located near 11.5, -33.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 9
2021-10-01 16:51:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CENTERED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 33.5W ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 33.5 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed today. A turn toward the northwest is anticipated over the weekend, and that motion will likely continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Over the weekend, Victor is forecast to slowly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-10-01 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011450 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 36.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.6N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.7N 42.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 43.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 46.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 33.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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