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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-01 14:22:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011145 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Oct 1 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is possible through early today before it reaches an area of stronger upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-01 14:20:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 400 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Victor, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-10-01 10:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 08:43:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 09:28:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-10-01 10:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Victor has continued to become a little better organized, with a 0342Z AMSR2 overpass showing that a 75-percent-closed mid-level eye feature had formed. However, both data sources also revealed that a pronounced dry slot has formed in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow remains well established in all quadrants except to the south where it is somewhat restricted. Despite the slightly improved satellite signatures, subjective and objective intensity classifications have not changed since the previous advisory, so the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Victor has made a slight jog toward the northwest, but this is likely a temporary motion due to redevelopment of the center farther into the convective cloud shield. The cyclone should resume a west-northwestward motion later today and maintain that motion for another day or so as Victor moves along the southwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge situated over the east-central Atlantic. The latest model runs continue to show a broad mid- to upper-level low developing over the central Atlantic to the west of Victor in the 24-72-h forecast period, which will act to erode the western portion of the ridge and create a deep-layer southerly flow pattern across the cyclone. As a result, Victor is forecast to turn northwestward by the weekend and then move northward by early next week. Owing to a more robust mid-/upper-level low forecast to develop than previously expected, the latest NHC track guidance has made a significant westward shift by at least 100 nmi at 72 h and nearly 200 nmi on days 4 and 5. This westward shift is due to Victor now forecast to weaken faster and become more vertically shallow, with the dominant steering flow shifting to low-level easterlies. The new NHC track forecast has also been shifted westward, but not as far west as the tightly packed consensus models, all of which lie well to the east of the westernmost GFS solution. Victor is expected to remain in a somewhat favorable environment for the next 18 h or so, which should allow for at least some slight strengthening to occur. Thereafter, however, southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase to 20-25 kt in 24 hours and 30-35 kt by 72 h. These hostile shear conditions, in conjunction with a drier air mass, should result in gradual weakening during the 24-120-h period, with Victor becoming a remnant low on day 5. The new official intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory, but it is above the consensus intensity models ICON, HCCA, and FSSE, due to the recent development of the aforementioned primitive eye feature. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 12.4N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.4N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 14.9N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 38.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.0N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Victor was located near 11.7, -32.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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