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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-09-01 23:12:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Sep 2016 20:34:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Sep 2016 21:07:38 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 41
2016-09-01 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012035 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016 The eye of Gaston is no longer visible in geostationary imagery, which shows the coldest convective tops are located west and north of the center. Dvorak classifications have decreased to T3.5/4.5 from TAFB and T3.0/4.0 from SAB. Based on the winds seen in the earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is lowered conservatively to 70 kt for this advisory. Steady weakening is forecast as Gaston is moving over waters below 26C and in an environment of 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear. The NHC forecast is a little lower than the previous one following the trend of all the guidance. Gaston should become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. The hurricane has accelerated east-northeastward this afternoon, with an initial motion estimate of 075/25. The track model guidance is in good agreement showing Gaston continuing east-northeastward with a decrease in forward speed as the system weakens and decouples from the mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is very close to the latest multi- model consensus aid TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 38.3N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 38.9N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 39.5N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 40.3N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 41.6N 25.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2016-09-01 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 012033 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 11 76(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 36(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-01 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE AZORES... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 1 the center of GASTON was located near 38.3, -37.5 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 41
2016-09-01 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016 ...GASTON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 37.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 37.5 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An east- northeastward motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western Azores on Friday and pass north of the central Azores on Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gaston is expected to become a tropical storm by early Friday before it reaches the western Azores. Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the western Azores on Friday and in the central Azores Friday night. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, primarily over the western Azores, through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston will begin affecting the Azores tonight and continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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