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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-07 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070843 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Julio's signature in infrared satellite imagery has improved since the last advisory. The hurricane is compact and symmetric, and the eye has cleared out during the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates have all increased and are now T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and T5.2/95 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A blend of these data supports increasing the winds to 85 kt on this advisory. The forward speed has increased a bit to 290/15 kt. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory. Global model fields are now indicating that a break in the ridge currently to the north of Hawaii may fill in just enough over the next few days to keep Julio from turning northwestward at the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the first 48 hours. After that time, the ECMWF model is a noticeable outlier compared to the rest of the models, showing Julio taking a more northern route as it is steered around a more strongly depicted mid-level high northeast of Hawaii. The updated NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies just to the northeast of the multi-model consensus TVCE after 72 hours. Julio is essentially straddling the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm and is expected to move over water between 25-26C during the next 3 days or so. Even though water temperatures are marginal for strengthening, Julio has a few other factors going for it. Vertical shear is expected to remain light for another 2 days, and Julio appears to be embedded within a much larger moisture envelope than Iselle has had to work with. In addition, Julio's fast motion may help to mitigate the negative influence of upper-ocean mixing of cooler waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast allows for the possibility of further strengthening during the next 12 hours or so and keeps Julio at hurricane strength for the next 2-3 days. Only gradual weakening is anticipated at the end of the forecast period since Julio will be moving over increasingly warmer waters to the north and west of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.8N 134.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.2N 137.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.0N 146.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 21.0N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 25.0N 161.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-07 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 the center of JULIO was located near 16.8, -134.9 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane JULIO Public Advisory Number 14
2014-08-07 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 ...JULIO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 134.9W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIO. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-08-07 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070842 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 42(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-08-07 10:41:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 134.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 134.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 134.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 137.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 143.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.0N 146.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 161.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 134.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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