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Tropical Storm Julio Graphics
2020-09-06 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 08:34:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 09:24:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-06 10:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt, and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in the guidance. The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone, resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore, this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately. Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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julio
Summary for Tropical Storm Julio (EP5/EP152020)
2020-09-06 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 17.6, -106.0 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-06 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...JULIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.0W ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Julio is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with some decrease in forward speed. A turn to the west is forecast to occur in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening should begin by Monday and Julio is forecast to dissipate within 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-06 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 40(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 110W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 20(20) 7(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO