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Hurricane JULIO Graphics
2014-08-07 05:20:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2014 02:51:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2014 03:08:15 GMT
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-07 04:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070252 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Julio has strengthened during the last several hours. The eye of the hurricane, which is quite distinct in microwave images, has recently become apparent in infrared satellite images. In addition, the convective pattern is more symmetric about the center than it was earlier today. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures of about 27 C, and in an atmosphere of low shear and relatively high moisture. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible during the overnight hours. After that time, however, Julio is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and should remain over 25-26 C water for the next few days. These cool waters combined with a drier air mass should cause the system to slowly weaken. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 290/14. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Julio is expected to keep the system moving westward to west-northwestward for the next few days. Beyond that time, the models are in fairly good agreement in showing a break in the ridge developing due to a large trough moving eastward over the north Pacific. This change in the steering pattern should cause Julio to turn more toward the northwest in 4 to 5 days. The track guidance has changed little this cycle, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Based on the latest forecast, Julio will be near or to the north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 133.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-07 04:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO STRENGTHENS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 the center of JULIO was located near 16.4, -133.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane JULIO Public Advisory Number 13
2014-08-07 04:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070251 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 ...JULIO STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 133.2W ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-08-07 04:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070251 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 13(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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