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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Peter's evolution on satellite today is nearly a repeat of yesterday, with the deep convection having been stripped well east of the center in the morning and then redeveloping over and east of the center by the afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter this morning and early afternoon provided data during a few different passes through the northeast quadrant that supported peak surface winds of 40-45 kt. Since the convection has returned it is reasonable to assume that no weakening has occurred since the aircraft departed the cyclone, and the initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain near 30 kt for the next few days as Peter interacts with an upper trough to its west, so some weakening is anticipated during that time. By late in the forecast period, the shear should lessen somewhat as the cyclone lifts north of the upper trough. Therefore, slow strengthening is indicated by late this week. There remains a possibility that Peter does not survive the shear over the next few days. However, the storm thus far has shown some resiliency to the hostile environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. Peter continues to move west-northwest but at a slightly slower pace of around 12 kt. The forecast track reasoning for the cyclone remains the same. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States. There were no significant changes to the track or the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the latest NHC track is closest to the TVCN and GFEX consensus tracks. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-09-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 202032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-20 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PETER REFUSES TO SUCCUMB TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... ...STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 20.0, -61.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-20 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 769 WTNT31 KNHC 202032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...PETER REFUSES TO SUCCUMB TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... ...STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 61.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-20 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 770 WTNT21 KNHC 202032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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