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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-19 11:08:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:08:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:22:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-19 10:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 389 WTNT41 KNHC 190849 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Deep convection has increased since the previous advisory, with the convective cloud pattern having taken on a more curved-band configuration compared to the earlier shear pattern. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the intensity to 35 kt. In addition, earlier ASCAT passes, which missed the center of circulation, did reveal 30-kt winds west of the center in convection-free areas. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection east of the center, which further supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Peter with a 35-kt intensity. The initial estimate is an uncertain 305/13 kt. Peter has made a slight jog to the north-northwest since the previous advisory, but this is likely a short-term motion owing to the center redeveloping farther to the north and east into the deep convection. However, a west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion through Wednesday as Peter moves around the southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. On Thursday and Friday, Peter is forecast to turn northward into a weakness in the ridge induced by the large Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The new forecast track has been shifted slightly to the right or north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCA and HCCA. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours or so as Peter moves over warmer sea-surface temperatures of about 29 deg C. However, proximity to very dry mid-level air and moderate deep-layer southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to prevent any significant or rapid strengthening. By early Tuesday and beyond, slow weakening is expected to begin due to increasing wind shear. The new official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.0N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-19 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 18.0, -53.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 53.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Peter is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by this afternoon, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-19 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 190835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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