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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 4A
2018-05-26 13:46:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 261146 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 700 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 ...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto is expected to move near the western tip of Cuba today, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday night through Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA buoy is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-05-26 11:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 09:56:10 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-05-26 11:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 09:56:10 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-26 10:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 08:54:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 08:54:28 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-05-26 10:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 260853 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 Alberto is not very well organized this morning. Satellite images indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep convection to its south and east. The struggling cyclone continues to battle westerly shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft in a few hours. Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling structure and involvement with an upper-level trough. The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an estimated speed of 6 kt. This general motion with a increase in forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel. A turn to the northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico. Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward when it moves inland over the eastern U.S. The models are in fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster from previous runs. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids. Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry air. There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it remains over warm SSTs. The models also suggest that Alberto will likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and that is reflected in the official forecast below. The official intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Although a hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest that this possibility is decreasing. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 21.6N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 24.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 28/0600Z 27.5N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 72H 29/0600Z 30.4N 87.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 30/0600Z 33.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/0600Z 38.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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