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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-05-25 22:58:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 252058 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 The inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little since the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship observations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded over the past several hours due a pronounced intrusion of dry mid-/upper-level air and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit the structure of a subtropical cyclone. The lowest pressure measured thus far by the aircraft has been 1006 mb. The initial position is a little north of the recon position of a pronounced swirl due to the broad overall nature of the low-level circulation. The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt, but this is considered to be a short-term motion. A gradual turn toward the north should begin later tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the Greater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday as a sharp mid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of Mexico combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a large subtropical ridge to produce deep-layer southerly flow across Alberto. By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing mid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast by Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to collapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis located along the Gulf coast. Slow but steady recurvature into the westerlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 h. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) model. The broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong westerly wind shear in excess of 20 kt is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear sooner than previously forecast, but the ragged nature of the wind field should prevent any significant intensification until after 48 hours. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is expected for the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 kt around 60 hours when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and over SSTs greater than 28 deg C. However, proximity to dry mid- level air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, closely following a blend of the HCCA and ICON consensus models and the FSSE model. The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm and storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at this time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later advisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the Gulf Coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to slow down after it moves inland. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 20.7N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 22.5N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 24.8N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 96H 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z 35.2N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-25 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 20:49:40 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-25 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 20:49:40 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-05-25 22:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 252048 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 3(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 19(34) 3(37) X(37) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 18(44) 2(46) X(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 4(40) X(40) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) 6(42) 1(43) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 9(41) 2(43) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 10(46) 2(48) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 31(54) 6(60) 1(61) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 12(40) 2(42) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 13(40) 1(41) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 13(35) 2(37) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 11(38) 1(39) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 22(34) 7(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 1(28) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 2(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 18 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 34 47(81) X(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-25 22:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri May 25 the center of Alberto was located near 19.4, -86.3 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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