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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)
2016-08-01 23:29:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HOWARD STEADY STATE...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of HOWARD was located near 17.2, -125.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 6
2016-08-01 23:29:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012128 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 ...HOWARD STEADY STATE...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 125.3W ABOUT 1075 MI...1725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 125.3 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so, but weakening should commence by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-08-01 23:28:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 012128 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 2100 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 127.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.7N 129.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.8N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.3N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.4N 151.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics
2016-08-01 17:04:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2016 14:43:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2016 15:04:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-01 16:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011443 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 Howard's convective structure has gradually been increasing in organization. The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a long curved band, at the head of which is a clearing around the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.5/35 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these is used to arrive at the initial intensity estimate of 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09. Howard's primary steering mechanism is the western extension of a subtropical ridge located over the south-central United States, which is imparting a mostly westerly course. However, a mid- to upper-level low west of the cyclone is allowing for a greater northerly component of motion. This general movement with some increase in forward speed is likely during the next 2 days, after which time a turn toward the west is likely. This should occur when Howard weakens and becomes a shallower cyclone in the trade-wind flow. The official NHC track forecast is hardly unchanged from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Ships model output shows some westerly shear over the cyclone, perhaps related to Howard's outrunning the upper-level anticyclone over it. Otherwise, large-scale conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for some additional intensification during the next 24 hours or so. By 36-48 hours, Howard should reach much cooler waters and enter an increasingly drier and more stable environment, all of which should lead to weakening. This should result in a fast rate of weakening, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical in 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus in the short term and then follows the LGEM during the weakening phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.7N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.9N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 22.9N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 22.9N 150.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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