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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST... ...FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 27.4, -96.4 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-13 22:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132038 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 96.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-13 22:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 132038 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) LAKE CHARLES 34 5 10(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) CAMERON LA 34 8 11(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) JASPER TX 34 5 15(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JASPER TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 18 25(43) 6(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 17 21(38) 6(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 71 12(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GALVESTON TX 50 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 58 20(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HOUSTON TX 50 4 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HOUSTON TX 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 87 5(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FREEPORT TX 50 17 9(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FREEPORT TX 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 85 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 41 20(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MATAGORDA TX 50 55 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MATAGORDA TX 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 72 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PORT O CONNOR 50 50 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PORT O CONNOR 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 20:00:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 18:00:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 15:22:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 20:00:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 26.9, -96.5 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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