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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:37:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-13 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 131436 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center, while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas' northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent surface winds. The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction. Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted, recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas. However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass by late afternoon through tonight. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of south Texas into the afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 16:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 26.4, -96.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-13 16:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131435 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northeastward to San Luis Pass, Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Sabine Pass. The Storm Surge Watch from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay has been discontinued. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass * Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana * Corpus Christi Bay A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-13 16:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 131435 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) JASPER TX 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 12(13) 7(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) GALVESTON TX 34 14 30(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GALVESTON TX 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 2 42(44) 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HOUSTON TX 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUSTIN TX 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 13 54(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) FREEPORT TX 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 58 6(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 20(22) 8(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) MATAGORDA TX 34 61 26(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MATAGORDA TX 50 2 28(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 75 15(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PORT O CONNOR 50 12 36(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 42 12(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 6 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 13 10(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 270N 960W 50 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MCALLEN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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