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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2021-09-12 22:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 122059 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) GALVESTON TX 34 X 15(15) 26(41) 3(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 9(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 6( 6) 46(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 35(37) 14(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 31(32) 41(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 41(42) 37(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 32(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 26(26) 43(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 21(21) 35(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 69(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 21(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 29(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 250N 960W 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 250N 960W 50 6 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)

2021-09-12 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 the center of Nicholas was located near 21.7, -95.5 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-09-12 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121745 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 95.5W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Satellite and reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the center may be re-forming farther north. As a result, some erratic motion is possible this afternoon, but a general north-northwestward motion near 15 mph (24 km/h) should resume later today. This motion should then continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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