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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)

2015-05-09 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ANA STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri May 8 the center of ANA was located near 32.1, -77.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 5

2015-05-09 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ANA STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 77.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.4 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and then back to the north at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate tha maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday morning. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin within 24 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by Saturday afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Subtropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2015-05-09 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 090232 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 6(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 10(21) 3(24) 4(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 24 18(42) 7(49) 4(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 7(10) 4(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 21(54) 8(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 14 15(29) 5(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 5

2015-05-09 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 090232 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.4W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.4W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.4N 77.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 78.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.3N 78.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 77.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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