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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-16 10:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160845 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 40.4N 55.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.4N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.9N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 58.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-16 04:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 02:39:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 03:31:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-16 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Although Kyle continues to lose its overall tropical appearance, a burst of deep convection redeveloped, albeit sheared to the northeast of the low-level center, which is close enough to the center to still the system classified as a tropical cyclone. ASCAT-A/-B passes at 2333Z/0047Z easily supported winds of 35 kt south through southwest of the center and, allowing for some slight undersampling, the initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 kt. The initial motion is 075/17 kt. There is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Kyle is expected to continue moving east-northeastward tonight and Sunday morning, maintaining that eastward motion until the cyclone is absorbed into a larger extratropical low in a couple of days. The official forecast similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies near the center of the NHC track guidance envelope. Kyle's low-level center is becoming increasingly stretched out northeast-to-southwest and the earlier burst of deep convection has also recently begun to wane, succumbing to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear. Thus, Kyle is not long for this world, with the cyclone expected to lose all convection within the next 6 to 12 hours, and continue to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning. It is highly possible that the next advisory could be the last forecast on Kyle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 40.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 40.6N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z 41.1N 53.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 41.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-16 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 078 FONT12 KNHC 160238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-16 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KYLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SUNDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Kyle was located near 40.0, -60.4 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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