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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-15 16:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151442 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the shear, there are indications that Kyle's winds have increased. A ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of Kyle's center. Although the observation was elevated, it still supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt. Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday. The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment. Some additional strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the week, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-15 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING OUT TO SEA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Kyle was located near 39.0, -65.6 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kyle Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-15 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING OUT TO SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 65.6W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 65.6 West. Kyle is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the east is expected by early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible today before Kyle becomes post-tropical later this weekend. Gradual weakening is then expected through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-15 16:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 762 FONT12 KNHC 151441 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-15 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151441 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 65.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 65.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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