je.st

Home › bud

Tag: bud

Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2018-06-11 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110235 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 10(22) 8(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 10(21) 8(29) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 7(17) 19(36) 5(41) 1(42) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 10(22) 2(24) X(24) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 8(21) 10(31) 2(33) X(33) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 8 11(19) 9(28) 7(35) 5(40) 1(41) X(41) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 10 10(20) 7(27) 4(31) 5(36) X(36) 1(37) MANZANILLO 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14) 20N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 10(21) 21(42) 8(50) 1(51) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 12(25) 4(29) 2(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number speed wind bud

Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 6

2018-06-11 04:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110235 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 104.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory forecast bud

Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-11 01:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 the center of Bud was located near 15.6, -104.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Tags: summary bud hurricane ep3ep032018

Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 5A

2018-06-11 01:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 102339 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 ...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 104.7W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 104.7 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to strengthen rapidly during the next 24 hours or so, but weakening is expected to begin by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 145 miles (230 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Tuesday afternoon over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of high terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Monday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number public advisory bud