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Remnants of MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2013-09-20 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200231 PWSEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Remnants of MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-20 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of MANUEL was located near 26.2, -106.7 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Remnants of MANUEL Public Advisory Number 23

2013-09-20 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 ...MANUEL DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 106.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST...AND ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMANTS OF MANUEL COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA...DURANGO AND CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Remnants of MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 23

2013-09-20 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200231 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 106.7W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 106.7W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 106.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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