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Tropical Storm Marco Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-08-22 23:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 21:55:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-22 22:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 20:58:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 21:31:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-22 22:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 20:58:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-22 22:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 104 WTNT44 KNHC 222055 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Cutting to the chase, there have been some big changes among the model guidance, and subsequently the NHC forecast, for Marco this afternoon. While at this point it's a little speculative, the data collected by this morning's NOAA G-IV flight in the environment around Marco and across the Gulf of Mexico may have played a key role in the significant eastward shift seen in nearly all the 12z models. This isn't to say that the uncertainty in the eventual track has diminished. In fact, various ensemble members from some of the global models still show a potential risk to the coast anywhere from Texas to Alabama, and it's entirely possible that the volatile shifts seen in the models could continue. That being said, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly eastward and now shows the center of Marco reaching southeastern Louisiana in about 2 days, which is the scenario currently shown by the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN multi-model consensus. After Marco reaches the coast, the western Atlantic ridge is expected to build westward and should cause the cyclone to move more slowly toward the west-northwest across southern portions of Louisiana. As far as the intensity is concerned, the last fix made by this morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Marco is beginning to move into a zone of moderate southwesterly shear, but otherwise favorable conditions of warm ocean water and some upper-level divergence are expected to foster strengthening during the next day or so. With the exception of the HWRF, the other intensity models show Marco reaching hurricane strength, and the NHC foreast continues to show that possibility while Marco moves over the central Gulf. The shear is still expected to strengthen in 36-48 hours when the system is approaching the northern Gulf Coast, but with the shift in the forecast track, now there may not be enough time for Marco to weaken below hurricane intensity before it reaches land. The new NHC intensity forecast is near or just above the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble models and holds Marco as a hurricane until it reaches the coast. The forecast track changes now bring tropical storm force winds to the coast in 36-48 hours, which necessitates the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast. These watches will likely need to be upgraded to warnings later tonight. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme western Cuba through this evening. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash flooding. 2. Marco is expected to approach the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that could be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 27.5N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 29.3N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON THE COAST 60H 25/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 31.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 26/1800Z 32.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-22 22:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 734 FONT14 KNHC 222054 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 15(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 13(46) X(46) X(46) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 18(64) 1(65) X(65) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 20(68) 2(70) X(70) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 14(34) 1(35) X(35) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 50(60) 12(72) 1(73) X(73) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 58(62) 20(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 29(30) 28(58) 1(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 13(13) 16(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) 1(30) X(30) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 25(67) 1(68) X(68) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 17(38) 1(39) X(39) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 6(30) 1(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 30(54) 2(56) X(56) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 25(50) 2(52) X(52) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 4(37) X(37) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 27(39) 1(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 25(39) 1(40) X(40) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) X(29) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 3(23) X(23) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 3(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) X(20) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) X(17) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 24(36) 5(41) 1(42) X(42) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 48(59) 11(70) 1(71) X(71) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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