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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-22 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated the system over the northwest Caribbean during the past few hours. The plane reported a number of unflagged SFMR winds between 35 and 40 kt and max flight level winds of 41 kt. A blend of these data supports an intensity of 35 kt, and therefore, this system has been designated as Tropical Storm Marco. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of Marco's center during the past few hours. Although there still isn't much evidence of inner-core banding, the data from the plane does indicate that the center of Marco has become better defined since the afternoon and that the minimum pressure has dropped. Unfortunately the intensity forecast has not become any clearer and confidence in that aspect of the forecast is quite low. Marco is embedded within an environment that could support a fast rate of strengthening. However, recent microwave data does not indicate that the system has developed an inner-core, and only gradual strengthening is likely until it does. The intensity guidance spread is quite high, with the GFS and ECMWF global models both showing little further strengthening, while the HMON regional model rapidly makes Marco a hurricane before it reaches the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. That possibility can not be ruled out, but a majority of the intensity guidance favors the weaker solution of the global models. Even with the HMON outlier included, the NHC intensity forecast is above the model consensus. Once Marco moves over the central Gulf of Mexico, a rapid increase in wind shear associated with an upper-level trough should limit the potential for further strengthening, and weakening is still anticipated before Marco nears the northern Gulf Coast, as shown in the previous official forecast. Confidence in the track forecast is also lower than normal, as the models spread remains quite high. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast which heavily favors the GFS and ECMWF solutions on the left side of the track guidance. It is worth noting that the NHC track forecast is near middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Marco is currently forecast to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two, before the ridge builds and turns the tropical cyclone farther west. Near the end of the period, Marco's track and intensity could be also influenced by Tropical Storm Laura which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time. Given the high uncertainty in the forecast, larger than normal changes could be required to future advisories. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 18.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-22 04:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Marco was located near 18.7, -84.9 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-22 04:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 84.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.9 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter plane. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-22 04:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 220251 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 2(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 6(52) 1(53) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 12(53) 3(56) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 4(25) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 15(37) 4(41) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 5(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) 7(43) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 6(29) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 18(36) 5(41) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 5(30) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 6(34) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 6(29) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 4(24) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 12 43(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) COZUMEL MX 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 9 27(36) 3(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-22 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 835 WTNT24 KNHC 220250 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 84.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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