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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-06 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061435 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been devoid of organized deep convection for at least 12 hours, and since the cyclone is moving over sub-23C sea surface temperatures, regeneration of deep convection is unlikely. Therefore, Hilda is designated as a 25 kt post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory from National Hurricane Center. The low should continue to move further into a dry and stable air mass and over even cooler waters. Consequently, weakening is forecast and the remnant low of Hilda should open up into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this general heading, within the low-level flow, is forecast to continue until dissipation. For additional information on Hilda please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.1N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-06 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 6 the center of Hilda was located near 23.1, -134.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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ep3ep082021
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Public Advisory Number 28
2021-08-06 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 ...HILDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 134.1W ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 134.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this slightly slower motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected and the remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough of low pressure on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hilda. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-08-06 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 061434 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-08-06 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061433 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 134.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HILDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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