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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-04 04:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040235 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 115.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Graphics
2021-08-01 10:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 08:39:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 08:39:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010838 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has remained poorly organized for more than 24 hours and has produced a very limited amount of convection during that time. As a result of the lack of organized deep convection over the past day, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and it has degenerated into a remnant low. In addition, the original low-level swirl that was tracked over the past day or so appears to have been absorbed within the envelope of the broader low pressure area. The system's initial intensity is maintained at 25 kt, but this could be generous. The depression has been plagued by shear and dry air entrainment, and those conditions are expected to persist for at least the next couple of days. If the system is able to survive past 72 hours, there is some chance of redevelopment when the shear decreases later in the period. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential interaction with Hurricane Hilda located to the cyclone's northeast, the official forecast calls for the system to remain a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system unless regeneration occurs. The cyclone has been nearly stationary overnight, but it is forecast to begin a slow westward to west-northwestward motion later today, and that motion should continue for the next few days. After that time, possible interaction with Hilda increases the track forecast uncertainty, but since the majority of the dynamical models keep the low on a west-northwestward heading, so does the NHC forecast. Future information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Information on potential regeneration will be available in the Tropical Weather Outlook as needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.4N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Jul 31 the center of Nine-E was located near 11.4, -127.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010838 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 127.5W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is stationary. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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