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Post-Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-10-24 22:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242031 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 100.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 100.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 100.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Patricia Becomes Most Intense Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded in Western Hemisphere
2015-10-23 21:01:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
EcoWatch: Stunning, historic, mind-boggling and catastrophic: that sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight. At 2:46 a.m. EDT Oct. 23, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 880 mb in Patricia, making it the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. The aircraft measured surface winds of 200 mph, which are the highest reliably-measured surface winds on record for a tropical cyclone,...
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El Nino curbs Australian cyclone threat to iron ore, coal miners
2015-10-12 03:14:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Reuters: Australian exports of commodities such as iron ore and coal face a less-than-average chance of being disrupted by cyclones in the upcoming cyclone season due to the El Nino weather pattern. That would mark a rare beneficial effect from El Nino, which often brings drought to some regions while prompting flooding in others. In Western Australia state, where past cyclones have brought some of the world's biggest mines and shipping terminals to a standstill, there's a 75-percent chance of fewer cyclones...
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-08 05:04:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2015 02:36:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2015 03:04:48 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 42
2015-10-08 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080235 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the system no longer resembles a tropical cyclone, with a disorganized area of multi-layered cloudiness sheared off well to the northeast of the ill-defined low-level center. However, model analyses and surface data indicate that the cyclone is not yet embedded within a frontal zone, and therefore is not extratropical at this time. Nonetheless, since the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone, Joaquin is being declared as a post- tropical cyclone, and advisories are being terminated. Cyclone phase space analyses from Florida State University indicate that the system will become extratropical in about 12 hours, and this is also shown in the official forecast. The current intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with a recent scatterometer overpass. Global models show a gradual spindown of the cyclone over the next several days, and so does the official forecast. Post-tropical Joaquin continues to move rapidly toward the east, or 080/30 kt, while embedded in strong mid-latitude westerlies. The steering current is forecast to gradually weaken as a mid-level trough deepens near the Greenwich meridian, and the cyclone should move at a progressively slower forward speed over the period. In 2-3 days, the system is forecast to turn southeastward ahead of the abovementioned trough. There is fairly good agreement among the global models on this scenario. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are primarily based upon guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 42.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 42.8N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 42.5N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 42.5N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 42.0N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 40.5N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 39.0N 10.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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