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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110833 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 114.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 483 WTNT43 KNHC 100248 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The structure of Mindy this evening has become quite diffuse, with a linear band of convection mostly associated with a prominent outflow boundary emanating away from the system. The last-light visible low-level cloud motions gave the impression that Mindy was opening up into a trough, with southwesterly flow ahead and northeasterly flow immediately behind the estimated center. Indeed, a ASCAT-A pass valid at 0002 UTC suggested that Mindy no longer has closed cyclonic flow on its northeast side, with a lack of easterly wind vectors in this sector of the system. In addition, a rapidly advancing frontal boundary has already moved off of the Carolina coast and will soon be merging with the leftover vort-max associated with Mindy. The accumulation of all this evidence indicates that Mindy no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory on the system. The post-tropical remains of Mindy have continued to accelerate to the east-northeast this evening at 070/25 kt, moving almost as quickly as the the maximum sustained winds, which is another reason why the circulation is likely no longer closed. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours with a gradual slowdown until what remains of the circulation becomes indistinguishable from the frontal boundary it is becoming embedded in. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 32.5N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Graphics
2021-09-10 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 02:46:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 02:46:39 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy (AT3/AL132021)
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 32.5, -75.0 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-10 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 75.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown until the system dissipates Friday night or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening of the winds is expected before the system dissipates. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Papin
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