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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-04-25 16:44:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 251443 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 ...EARLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 116.1W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 116.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by late Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-04-25 16:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 370 WTPZ21 KNHC 251443 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 1500 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2019-06-26 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 08:35:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 09:24:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-06-26 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 The overall convective pattern of the cyclone has changed little since the previous advisory. However, passive microwave images indicate that the low-level center has become less distinct and that the inner-core convection has become ragged. In addition, the coldest cloud tops have migrated from north through east to now south of the center during the past 12 hours, another indication that the inner-core of the depression is undergoing some structural changes. Although no ASCAT wind data are available over the cyclone's core, a 0417Z ASCAT-C pass did catch the western portion of the circulation and only showed northerly winds of 5-10 kt within 30 nmi of the center, which suggests that the surface wind field might not be as well developed as the circulation aloft is. The initial position and the 275/13-kt motion are based on a blend of microwave and conventional fixes, and also continuity with the previous motion vector. The latest track model guidance is in decent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next few days as a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge holds steady to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, the 00Z ECMWF model continues to show a more southward dip in the track during the next 24 h. That is a viable alternate track scenario if the center redevelops farther south closer to the coldest overshooting cloud tops later this morning. There is a narrow window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 h or so while the cyclone remains over warm water and in low vertical wind shear conditions. By 36-48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs and into a more stable environment that is not conducive for generating vigorous convection despite the favorable low-shear conditions forecast at that time. The combination of cooler waters, drier mid-level air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear shear are expected to induce steady weakening in 48-96 hours, with dissipation forecast by 120 h. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.5N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-26 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 the center of One-E was located near 15.5, -108.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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