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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-10-13 07:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130557 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 108.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Pamela is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin this morning and continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning and move inland over western Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Pamela is forecast to regain hurricane strength by the time it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico this morning. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently observed at Isla Maria Madre, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions soon beginning to spread over portions of the coast. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-09-10 19:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101753 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PUERTO CORTES... ...OLAF EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 112.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward and around the peninsula to Loreto A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 112.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes recently measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). A weather station at Puerto Cortes recently measured a pressure of 1000.4 mb (29.54 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-28 19:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA STRENGTHENING WHILE AN EYE FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico * North of San Blas to Altata Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico, during the next several hours. A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight if Nora's center does not move inland over Mexico. Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco. A gust to 50 mph (80 km/h) was also reported at Manzanillo, Colima. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Nora's eyewall is moving onshore the coast of southern Jalisco and western Colima. Hurricane conditions are imminent within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area and will spread northward within warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over tropical storm warning area south of Manzanillo and will spread to the northern tropical storm warning area north of San Blas this evening through Sunday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and the central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-16 13:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 70.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are likely later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-12 19:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121739 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 74.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical-storm strength during that time. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1014 mb (29.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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