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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-07-24 19:46:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING GONZALO... ...GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 54.8W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Barbados has canceled the Hurricane Watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter plane was 1008 mb (29.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-10-01 14:43:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 381 WTPZ31 KNHC 011243 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Corrected classification of Narda in discussion and outlook section ...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is forecast to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely dissipate later today, however moisture associated with Narda's remnants will continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This moisture could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning. These winds should diminish through the day. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through today: Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-10-01 13:47:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011147 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is forecast to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely dissipate later today, however moisture associated with Narda's remnants will continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This moisture could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning. These winds should diminish through the day. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through today: Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-09-25 07:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250559 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding by late morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-09-20 13:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201142 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 59.6W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 59.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently reported a minimum central pressure of 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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