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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-07-25 07:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250532 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 57.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead to areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 14A
2019-09-21 01:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 284 WTNT35 KNHC 202345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY'S CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THOSE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 62.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 62.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to move north of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Jerry will then pass well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could re-strengthen early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 14A
2019-09-21 01:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202344 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 109.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...95 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Lorena is now moving toward the northwest at about 5 mph (8 km/h). On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane should move over or near the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 14A
2019-08-28 02:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280000 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Corrected forecaster name ...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 62.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 14A
2019-07-14 01:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132346 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 700 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...BARRY CONTINUES MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 92.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The Tropical Storm Warning west of Cameron Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 92.7 West. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across central Louisiana tonight, through northern Louisiana on Sunday, and over Arkansas Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, has recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph and a wind gust of 55 mph. In addition, the Acadiana Regional Airport in New Iberia, Louisiana, recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist through Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through tonight across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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