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Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 14A
2018-10-23 19:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...EYE OF WILLA PASSING NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 106.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Willa is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of Willa will approach the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this evening. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico this evening. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches possible. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria this afternoon, and will spread into the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area through this evening. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 14A
2018-10-10 07:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100555 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast later today, and possible in the watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase today into over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 14A
2018-09-27 13:59:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 971 WTNT32 KNHC 271158 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 58.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 58.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area by this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mostly north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Beryl Public Advisory Number 14A
2018-07-09 01:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082337 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...REMNANTS OF BERYL NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 61.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of the remnants of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the remnants of Beryl were located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (42 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the remnants of Beryl will move across the Leeward Islands during the next few hours, and then move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is anticipated during the next 24 hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone in a few days when the remnants of Beryl are forecast to move across the Bahamas and the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north and northeast of the center. La Desirade Island near Guadeloupe recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Strong gusty winds are also possible elsewhere across the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up to 5 inches are possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 14A
2018-06-13 07:50:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130550 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 108.7W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 108.7 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected into Thursday. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja California Sur Thursday night and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bud is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Thursday. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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