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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-12 22:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 122049 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 80.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.2N 81.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 83.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 75.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 19:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 21.0, -74.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-12 19:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121739 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 74.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical-storm strength during that time. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1014 mb (29.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 19:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 17:39:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 15:23:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 16:58:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 14:58:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 15:23:01 GMT
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