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Tropical Depression Kevin Public Advisory Number 20
2021-08-12 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kevin Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...KEVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 119.3W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kevin was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 119.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a remnant low later today and dissipate this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin will affect portions of the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-08-12 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-12 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:36:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:36:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-12 10:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 763 WTNT41 KNHC 120835 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's strength and structure. Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global models and consensus aids. Fred is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and those unfavorable winds combined with some land interaction with Cuba should prevent the system from strengthening much, if at all, during that time period. The shear could lessen on Friday and since SSTs are very warm and there is abundant environmental moisture, some strengthening seems likely when Fred is approaching the Florida Keys and south Florida Friday night and Saturday. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more complicated by how much land interaction there will be with Florida. Since the official forecast shows a track over the eastern Gulf, additional strengthening is predicted before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida Big Bend region or Florida panhandle late in the weekend or early next week. However, that part of the intensity forecast, since it will be very track dependent, is more uncertain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Continued heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning, and in portions of Cuba later today. 3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. These conditions are expected to spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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