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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-31 04:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 02:37:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 03:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-31 04:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310236 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 The depression is struggling. Aside from a stray cell or two, the cyclone has been nearly devoid of deep convection since the diurnal convective minimum earlier this evening. AMSR data near 22Z indicated that multiple weak swirls may be embedded within the broader circulation sampled earlier today by ASCAT. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory. Confidence in the track forecast is unusually low. The initial position, and therefore also the motion estimate, is highly uncertain due to the disorganized nature of the depression. On top of that, the track guidance is in extremely poor agreement regarding even the basics of the future track of the cyclone. Hilda, located relatively close to the east (about 10 degrees) may have some impact on the depression's track during the next 5 days. In fact, the GFS explicitly forecasts that a binary interaction will occur between the two tropical cyclones. Other models like the ECMWF move both systems steadily, and mostly independently, westward. As a course of least regret, the NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and multi-model consensus, between those two scenarios. Large changes to the track forecast may be necessary on Saturday if the track guidance begins to converge on a single solution. Warm water and moderate shear could allow for some strengthening during the next few days, if the depression can redevelop and sustain organized convection. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that will happen to some degree and has not been substantially changed. It is also possible that dry air in the environment could continue to inhibit convection as the depression moves westward. In that case, the official intensity forecast could wind up being a little too high. The NHC intensity forecast is well within the guidance envelope, but is a touch above the latest consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 12.5N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-07-31 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 310234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-07-31 04:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 the center of Nine-E was located near 12.5, -126.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 310233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 126.2W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 126.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A generally westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is anticipated through early next week. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm in a day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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