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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 802 WTPZ24 KNHC 310233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 126.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-07-30 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 the center of Nine-E was located near 12.3, -125.8 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-30 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 302047 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Corrected geographic reference in summary section. ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 125.8W ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 125.8 West. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected by Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-30 22:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jul 2021 20:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jul 2021 21:28:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to become better organized, particularly, in the east and south portions of the cyclone. The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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