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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-26 04:41:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260241 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2021-08-25 22:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Aug 2021 20:51:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Aug 2021 20:51:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-25 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252050 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Scatterometer data from a few hours ago revealed that a small but sufficiently well-defined circulation has formed on the western end of a broader circulation which lies a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the system is still in its formative stages and banding features are not readily apparent, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been a consensus T2.0/30 kt since this morning. The system is therefore now designated as a 30-kt tropical depression, although the scatterometer data suggested that its winds are already very near tropical storm force. The depression's surface center apparently formed a little south of the vorticity maximum we have been tracking over the past day or so. Therefore, the initial motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt. The evolution of the steering pattern is fairly consistent among the models. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, causing the depression to turn from a westward motion now, to a west-northwest motion tonight, to a northwest and north-northwest motion by Friday and Saturday. On this track, most of the models bring the center of the system near but still offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The GFS has been a notable exception, bringing the system inland over southwestern Mexico in about 3 days. However, that model shows a complex interaction with multiple low-level centers that consolidate farther east, and most of the GEFS ensemble members remain offshore with the other deterministic models. As a result, this first NHC official forecast also shows a track remaining offshore and is a little to the left of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over the depression for the next day or so, which would temper any fast strengthening in the short term. Still, the system will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius over the next few days, and lower shear in 2-3 days should allow it to strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend as it passes near the southwestern coast of Mexico and approaches the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement during the first 2 days, but there is much more spread after that time, likely related to the degree of land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast is near the consensus aids during the first 3 days and then a little bit above them on days 4 and 5, lying between the HWRF and HMON models at those forecast times. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm tonight and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. 2. The system is expected to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area early next week. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.7N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-25 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 11.7, -99.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-25 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 252050 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 99.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a portion of the coast on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 99.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday and north-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur later in the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico tonight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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