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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-28 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281436 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 First light visible imagery shows that the rather disorganized surface center is exposed near the western edge of the cloud mass. The associated deep convection has been diminishing during the past 6 hours due to the stiff west-northwesterly shear and a rather parched surrounding thermodynamic environment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, consistent with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the 1156 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows that the shear should decrease somewhat tonight and into Sunday, which should allow for some strengthening. By Monday, the aforementioned model, along with the deterministic guidance, indicates an increase in the shear magnitude and even lower mid- tropospheric relative humidity values, which should cap further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. There's more agreement in the large-scale models this morning indicating that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low toward the end of the week, and the NHC forecast follows suit. This is the only change from the previous advisory, and the NHC intensity forecast closely resembles the skilled IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus aids. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/7 kt. The depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough stretching from the northeast Atlantic to the central tropical Atlantic. This feature, along with a subtropical ridge situated over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should steer the depression generally toward the north through the 5-day period. The official track forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and is close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA multimodel guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.8N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-28 16:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 281435 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-28 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW HEADING NORTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 14.8, -50.1 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-28 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW HEADING NORTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 50.1W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-28 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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