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Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-29 22:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:52:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 21:23:02 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-29 22:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:52:43 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-29 22:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 292052 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) STENNIS MS 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 24 45(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) JACKSON MS 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BATON ROUGE LA 64 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MORGAN CITY LA 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LAFAYETTE LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NEW IBERIA LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-29 22:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 NWS Doppler radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that Ida made landfall around 1655 UTC along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port Fourchon with estimated maximum winds of 130 kt and a minimum pressure around 930 mb. Since that time, Ida made a second landfall southwest of Galliano, Louisiana, and with the eyewall now onshore weakening has begun. Based on the latest Doppler velocities the initial wind speed has been conservatively reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. As Ida's circulation moves farther inland this evening and overnight a faster rate of weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to become a tropical depression over Mississippi by late Monday. Although weakening is forecast, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. By 72 hours, Ida is predicted to merge with a frontal zone over the eastern United States and become an extratropical low, and this low is forecast to strengthen into a gale center near Atlantic Canada by the end of the forecast period. Radar fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has slowed and the initial motion estimate is 325/9 kt. The hurricane should turn northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast. Ida is forecast to turn northeastward and recurve over the eastern United States as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The GFS is a bit faster in ejecting the post-tropical cyclone northeastward on days 3 through 5, and the NHC forecast follows a blend of the various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level will continue through early this evening along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected through tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall through Monday across the central Gulf Coast across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 29.5N 90.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 30.7N 90.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 34.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 35.6N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0600Z 37.1N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 38.6N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 41.3N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 43.8N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-29 22:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 622 WTNT34 KNHC 292051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 90.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana from Morgan City to Intracoastal City has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning from Cameron to Intracoastal City Louisiana has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 90.6 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained winds of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a gust to 135 mph (217 km/h). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 91 mph (146 km/h) and wind gust of 122 mph (196 km/h). A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans. The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...8-12 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...5-8 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana through this evening. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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